Levels of Global Catastrophes: from Mild to Extinction

We have researched and compiled a preliminary list of various threats (Levels of Global Catastrophes) that range from Level 0 situations that may cause a temporary disruption to current way of life, all the way up to Level 3, which would change our current existence forever.

Level of Catastrophe Survivors Possible causes
(partial list)
Probability now & total Recovery time & probability of survival Regression Level Comments
Level 0 Billions survivors
Millions victims
– Regional nuclear war
– Civil Unrest (Financial or Government Collapse)
– 0.5 km asteroid
– World war without nukes
– Influenza Outbreak
Every 10-20 years May result in speed up of tech progress, 75-100% survival No technological regression Past examples: WW1, WW2, Flu 1918, USSR collapse
Level 1 Billions survivors
Billions victims
– Pandemic
– Nuclear war
– 1 km asteroid
– Solar Flares
– Permanent Destruction from Flooding/Fire
1% a year now 5-50 years
99% (this means that with 1% it will go to lower level of degradation)
End of 20 century technology The main risk is that instead of recovery, the Long war and degradation begins which will finally results in Level 2 catastrophe level.
Level 2 Millions survivors
Billions victims
– Multipandemic
– Doomsday weapons
– 5 km asteroid
0.1% now 50-5000 years
90%
“Middle ages” level with fire arms and some electric components – Most likely survivors will
be spared over earth’s surface
in smaller groups
Biologist prove that for
most species minimal survival
population is around
1000.

– Depletion of easy accessible
resources may prevent
creation of new technological
civilization
Level 3 Thousands – 10 km asteroid 5 000-50 000 years 50% Neolithic level with agriculture and written books; scavenging for scraps will dominate economy and prevent its rebuild Survival depends of remaining state of bioshpere. If it is damaged: cold, radioactive and nonproductive, chances are small.
Level 4 Total extinction